Preseason Rankings
Jacksonville St.
Ohio Valley
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.2#146
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.8#283
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.5#181
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#119
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.6% 23.9% 13.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.9 14.8
.500 or above 83.3% 88.0% 66.9%
.500 or above in Conference 88.5% 91.1% 79.7%
Conference Champion 25.7% 28.4% 16.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.7% 1.7%
First Four2.1% 1.9% 2.8%
First Round20.6% 23.0% 12.3%
Second Round2.8% 3.5% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 0.9% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Samford (Away) - 77.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.1 - 1.00.1 - 1.0
Quad 1b0.2 - 1.20.3 - 2.2
Quad 20.8 - 1.91.1 - 4.1
Quad 33.1 - 3.04.3 - 7.0
Quad 414.2 - 3.518.5 - 10.5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 322   @ Samford W 78-67 78%    
  Nov 12, 2018 57   @ Penn St. L 63-71 17%    
  Nov 14, 2018 117   @ Bradley L 64-66 32%    
  Nov 20, 2018 307   Western Carolina W 73-63 80%    
  Nov 21, 2018 213   North Florida W 80-76 64%    
  Dec 01, 2018 340   @ North Alabama W 73-58 83%    
  Dec 08, 2018 351   @ Delaware St. W 74-56 91%    
  Dec 12, 2018 81   @ Wichita St. L 68-73 25%    
  Dec 15, 2018 196   @ Evansville W 64-61 51%    
  Dec 18, 2018 340   North Alabama W 73-58 93%    
  Dec 22, 2018 11   @ West Virginia L 63-77 8%    
  Jan 03, 2019 109   @ Belmont L 68-70 32%    
  Jan 05, 2019 259   @ Tennessee St. W 66-59 63%    
  Jan 10, 2019 298   Eastern Illinois W 69-60 84%    
  Jan 12, 2019 320   SIU Edwardsville W 75-64 88%    
  Jan 17, 2019 109   Belmont L 68-70 52%    
  Jan 19, 2019 287   Tennessee Tech W 72-64 83%    
  Jan 24, 2019 273   @ Eastern Kentucky W 73-66 63%    
  Jan 26, 2019 224   @ Morehead St. W 71-66 56%    
  Jan 31, 2019 151   Murray St. W 68-67 61%    
  Feb 02, 2019 188   Austin Peay W 71-69 67%    
  Feb 07, 2019 285   @ Tennessee Martin W 69-61 65%    
  Feb 09, 2019 308   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 76-66 72%    
  Feb 14, 2019 287   @ Tennessee Tech W 72-64 66%    
  Feb 16, 2019 259   Tennessee St. W 66-59 78%    
  Feb 21, 2019 224   Morehead St. W 71-66 74%    
  Feb 23, 2019 273   Eastern Kentucky W 73-66 80%    
  Feb 28, 2019 298   @ Eastern Illinois W 69-60 68%    
  Mar 02, 2019 320   @ SIU Edwardsville W 75-64 74%    
Projected Record 18.5 - 10.5 12.3 - 5.7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.6 6.8 6.7 4.4 1.6 25.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.6 5.7 6.7 3.6 0.9 0.0 19.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 2.8 5.9 4.8 2.1 0.2 0.0 16.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.8 5.1 3.1 1.0 0.0 12.4 4th
5th 0.2 1.8 3.9 2.1 0.3 0.0 8.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 2.2 1.6 0.3 0.0 5.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 1.9 1.5 0.2 4.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 1.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.1 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 2.1 3.0 4.5 6.2 9.0 10.7 12.1 12.9 13.4 10.7 7.6 4.4 1.6 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.6    1.6
17-1 99.3% 4.4    4.1 0.3
16-2 88.2% 6.7    5.2 1.3 0.1
15-3 63.9% 6.8    3.9 2.4 0.5 0.0
14-4 34.1% 4.6    1.8 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 10.4% 1.3    0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 25.7% 25.7 16.8 6.6 1.8 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.6% 80.2% 72.7% 7.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 27.7%
17-1 4.4% 62.3% 61.4% 0.9% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.1 1.7 2.4%
16-2 7.6% 46.0% 44.8% 1.1% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.1 4.1 2.1%
15-3 10.7% 38.0% 37.8% 0.2% 14.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.5 1.1 0.2 6.6 0.3%
14-4 13.4% 27.7% 27.7% 14.4 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.3 0.6 9.7
13-5 12.9% 21.7% 21.7% 14.9 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.3 0.8 10.1
12-6 12.1% 13.7% 13.7% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 10.4
11-7 10.7% 8.2% 8.2% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 9.8
10-8 9.0% 5.8% 5.8% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 8.5
9-9 6.2% 4.8% 4.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 5.9
8-10 4.5% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1 4.4
7-11 3.0% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 2.9
6-12 2.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.1
5-13 0.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.9
4-14 0.6% 0.6
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 21.6% 21.3% 0.3% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 2.0 3.8 5.3 5.2 4.1 78.4 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 5.0 2.4 96.4 1.2